Development and validation of an early warning model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a multi-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Timely identification of deteriorating COVID-19 patients is needed to guide changes in clinical management and admission to intensive care units (ICUs). There is significant concern that widely used Early warning scores (EWSs) underestimate illness severity in COVID-19 patients and therefore, we developed an early warning model specifically for COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We retrospectively collected electronic medical record data to extract predictors and used these to fit a random forest model. To simulate the situation in which the model would have been developed after the first and implemented during the second COVID-19 'wave' in the Netherlands, we performed a temporal validation by splitting all included patients into groups admitted before and after August 1, 2020. Furthermore, we propose a method for dynamic model updating to retain model performance over time. We evaluated model discrimination and calibration, performed a decision curve analysis, and quantified the importance of predictors using SHapley Additive exPlanations values. RESULTS: We included 3514 COVID-19 patient admissions from six Dutch hospitals between February 2020 and May 2021, and included a total of 18 predictors for model fitting. The model showed a higher discriminative performance in terms of partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.82 [0.80-0.84]) compared to the National early warning score (0.72 [0.69-0.74]) and the Modified early warning score (0.67 [0.65-0.69]), a greater net benefit over a range of clinically relevant model thresholds, and relatively good calibration (intercept = 0.03 [- 0.09 to 0.14], slope = 0.79 [0.73-0.86]). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the potential benefit of moving from early warning models for the general inpatient population to models for specific patient groups. Further (independent) validation of the model is needed.

Immune Determinants of Viral Clearance in Hospitalised COVID-19 Patients: Reduced Circulating Naïve CD4+ T Cell Counts Correspond with Delayed Viral Clearance.

Virus-specific cellular and humoral responses are major determinants for protection from critical illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the magnitude of the contribution of each of the components to viral clearance remains unclear. Here, we studied the timing of viral clearance in relation to 122 immune parameters in 102 hospitalised patients with moderate and severe COVID-19 in a longitudinal design. Delayed viral clearance was associated with more severe disease and was associated with higher levels of SARS-CoV-2-specific (neutralising) antibodies over time, increased numbers of neutrophils, monocytes, basophils, and a range of pro-inflammatory cyto-/chemokines illustrating ongoing, partially Th2 dominating, immune activation. In contrast, early viral clearance and less critical illness correlated with the peak of neutralising antibodies, higher levels of CD4 T cells, and in particular naïve CD4+ T cells, suggesting their role in early control of SARS-CoV-2 possibly by proving appropriate B cell help. Higher counts of naïve CD4+ T cells also correlated with lower levels of MIF, IL-9, and TNF-beta, suggesting an indirect role in averting prolonged virus-induced tissue damage. Collectively, our data show that naïve CD4+ T cell play a critical role in rapid viral T cell control, obviating aberrant antibody and cytokine profiles and disease deterioration. These data may help in guiding risk stratification for severe COVID-19.

Immunoglobulin G1 Fc glycosylation as an early hallmark of severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) effector functions are impacted by the structure of fragment crystallizable (Fc) tail-linked N-glycans. Low fucosylation levels on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike (S) protein-specific IgG1 has been described as a hallmark of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and may lead to activation of macrophages via immune complexes thereby promoting inflammatory responses, altogether suggesting involvement of IgG1 Fc glycosylation modulated immune mechanisms in COVID-19. METHODS: In this prospective, observational single center cohort study, IgG1 Fc glycosylation was analyzed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry following affinity capturing from serial plasma samples of 159 SARS-CoV-2 infected hospitalized patients. FINDINGS: At baseline close to disease onset, anti-S IgG1 glycosylation was highly skewed when compared to total plasma IgG1. A rapid, general reduction in glycosylation skewing was observed during the disease course. Low anti-S IgG1 galactosylation and sialylation as well as high bisection were early hallmarks of disease severity, whilst high galactosylation and sialylation and low bisection were found in patients with low disease severity. In line with these observations, anti-S IgG1 glycosylation correlated with various inflammatory markers. INTERPRETATION: Association of low galactosylation, sialylation as well as high bisection with disease severity and inflammatory markers suggests that further studies are needed to understand how anti-S IgG1 glycosylation may contribute to disease mechanism and to evaluate its biomarker potential. FUNDING: This project received funding from the European Commission's Horizon2020 research and innovation program for H2020-MSCA-ITN IMforFUTURE, under grant agreement number 721815, and supported by Crowdfunding Wake Up To Corona, organized by the Leiden University Fund.

Prolonged activation of nasal immune cell populations and development of tissue-resident SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T cell responses following COVID-19.

Systemic immune cell dynamics during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are extensively documented, but these are less well studied in the (upper) respiratory tract, where severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) replicates1-6. Here, we characterized nasal and systemic immune cells in individuals with COVID-19 who were hospitalized or convalescent and compared the immune cells to those seen in healthy donors. We observed increased nasal granulocytes, monocytes, CD11c+ natural killer (NK) cells and CD4+ T effector cells during acute COVID-19. The mucosal proinflammatory populations positively associated with peripheral blood human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRlow monocytes, CD38+PD1+CD4+ T effector (Teff) cells and plasmablasts. However, there was no general lymphopenia in nasal mucosa, unlike in peripheral blood. Moreover, nasal neutrophils negatively associated with oxygen saturation levels in blood. Following convalescence, nasal immune cells mostly normalized, except for CD127+ granulocytes and CD38+CD8+ tissue-resident memory T cells (TRM). SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T cells persisted at least 2 months after viral clearance in the nasal mucosa, indicating that COVID-19 has both transient and long-term effects on upper respiratory tract immune responses.

Corticosteroid use in COVID-19 patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis on clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: In the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been worldwide debate on the use of corticosteroids in COVID-19. In the recent RECOVERY trial, evaluating the effect of dexamethasone, a reduced 28-day mortality in patients requiring oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation was shown. Their results have led to considering amendments in guidelines or actually already recommending corticosteroids in COVID-19. However, the effectiveness and safety of corticosteroids still remain uncertain, and reliable data to further shed light on the benefit and harm are needed. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of corticosteroids in COVID-19. METHODS: A systematic literature search of RCTS and observational studies on adult patients was performed across Medline/PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from December 1, 2019, until October 1, 2020, according to the PRISMA guidelines. Primary outcomes were short-term mortality and viral clearance (based on RT-PCR in respiratory specimens). Secondary outcomes were: need for mechanical ventilation, need for other oxygen therapy, length of hospital stay and secondary infections. RESULTS: Forty-four studies were included, covering 20.197 patients. In twenty-two studies, the effect of corticosteroid use on mortality was quantified. The overall pooled estimate (observational studies and RCTs) showed a significant reduced mortality in the corticosteroid group (OR 0.72 (95%CI 0.57-0.87). Furthermore, viral clearance time ranged from 10 to 29 days in the corticosteroid group and from 8 to 24 days in the standard of care group. Fourteen studies reported a positive effect of corticosteroids on need for and duration of mechanical ventilation. A trend toward more infections and antibiotic use was present. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings from both observational studies and RCTs confirm a beneficial effect of corticosteroids on short-term mortality and a reduction in need for mechanical ventilation. And although data in the studies were too sparse to draw any firm conclusions, there might be a signal of delayed viral clearance and an increase in secondary infections.